This is Emre.

The Neighbor's Fire

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As of 2026, with U.S. - Iran military tensions continuing to escalate, the Middle East has once again been pushed to the brink of war. As a neighbor sharing a land border of over 550 kilometers with Iran and heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy corridors, Türkiye though not a direct party to the conflict feels the scorching heat of this "neighbor's fire" acutely. The U.S. - Iran tension not only impacts Türkiye's already fragile economy through energy prices and trade routes but also poses serious challenges to Ankara's national strategies at the security and geopolitical levels.

The economic transmission mechanism from energy prices to the "Bread Basket"

Türkiye is heavily dependent on imported oil and natural gas, making its economy highly sensitive to fluctuations in international energy prices. The threat posed by the U.S. - Iran conflict to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz immediately triggered anxiety over energy supply within Türkiye. As early as the initial stages of the escalation, Turkish citizens formed long queues at gas stations out of fear of rising fuel prices and subsequent developments proved these concerns to be well-founded.

Looking at macroeconomic data, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek acknowledged that war-induced oil price increases have created "negative" pressure on the economy. According to official assessments, if the average oil price remains around $85 per barrel in 2026, Türkiye's inflation rate is expected to rise by an additional 3.6 to 4.4 percentage points, while economic growth is projected to slow by 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points. Given that annual inflation stood at 31.5% in February 2026, this additional burden is nothing short of pouring more weight onto an already strained system.

This macroeconomic pressure manifests itself in the most tangible and direct way possible through bread. In Turkish culture, "bread money" (ekmek parası) is synonymous with one's livelihood. However, the U.S.-Israel axis of military operations pushed up energy and flour prices, forcing bread prices to rise sharply. In Ankara, for example, the price of a loaf of sourdough bread jumped from 95 lira to 120 lira. After remaining unchanged for eight months, bread prices across the country were raised by nearly 17%. As local economists have pointed out, the effects of war are not a distant abstraction but a concrete reality squeezing every Turkish family's "bread basket."

The security and foreign policy dilemma between mediation, gedging, and precaution

Faced with a conflict on its doorstep, Türkiye's security and foreign policy posture reveals a complex and pragmatic character.

First, active mediation and diplomatic hedging form the core of its strategy. Türkiye has explicitly opposed any military intervention against Iran and has offered to play a mediating role between Washington and Tehran. Turkish foreign ministers have engaged in intensive diplomatic contacts with Iran and other regional actors, even offering to host potential U.S. - Iran talks on Turkish soil. This mediation effort reflects both a genuine desire to preserve regional stability and Türkiye's broader hedging strategy of balancing between East and West while enhancing its geopolitical influence.

Second, preventing a refugee influx and securing the border constitute Türkiye's most pressing concern. Having already experienced the massive refugee wave from the Syrian civil war, Türkiye is acutely aware of the socio-economic burden that a new wave from Iran could impose. Accordingly, Turkish officials have stated that they are "prepared to strengthen border security measures with Iran" including the construction of physical barriers if necessary. At the same time, Ankara has firmly denied allegations of "plans to invade Iranian territory," emphasizing its respect for its neighbor's sovereignty.

Finally, the Kurdish question has resurfaced as a critical strategic concern. Türkiye fears that Kurdish groups in Iran could capitalize on regional instability to grow stronger, potentially energizing separatist movements among Kurdish populations in Iraq, Syria, and within Türkiye itself. This is precisely why Ankara is eager to see the conflict de-escalate and end quickly, rather than drag on or expand.

In summary, the U.S. - Iran military conflict represents a "neighbor's fire with no winners" for Türkiye. Economically, it strikes at the country's fragile macroeconomic foundation through energy price shocks, directly raising the cost of living for ordinary citizens. In security terms, it brings direct threats ranging from potential refugee flows to the spillover of Kurdish-related instability. For these reasons, Türkiye is simultaneously pursuing a mediating role to lower tensions while reinforcing its border defenses to protect its own interests. The future trajectory of this conflict will continue to profoundly shape Türkiye's domestic and foreign policy in the period ahead.

State institution culture and aesthetic understanding

Atatürk's vision was not confined to constitutions and laws; it permeated every corner of Türkiye from a village institute in a remote province to a government mansion in a district, and from factory workers' housing in a city to a rural schoolyard. As you rightly pointed out, wherever you go in Türkiye, there is a common language extending from a state institution's parking lot to the arrangement of trees in its garden, from the façade of the building to the lighting in its corridors. This was no coincidence, but the product of a conscious construction process.

Architectural and public space understanding the physical signature of the Republic

In contrast to the ornate and complex architectural style inherited from the Ottomans, Republican-era architecture was built on the principles of simplicity, functionality, and symmetry. Behind this understanding lay the idea that the state should be transparent, accessible, and orderly. Government mansions, schools, hospitals, and community centers (Halkevleri) from that period were generally two or three stories high, with flat roofs, wide eaves, and rectangular forms.

• Standardization: The architectural plans for these buildings were often prepared centrally and sent to all corners of the country. Thus, a school in Edirne shared the same architectural language as a school in Van.
• Gardens and Landscaping: Institution gardens typically featured lawns, symmetrically planted pine trees, and modest yet well-maintained walking paths. Right next to the main entrance gates, small guard huts or lodgings made of the same materials and design were placed.
• Parking Lots: Under the conditions of the time, parking lots were not the vast expanses we see today; they were neat, tree-lined areas paved with stone or interlocking pavers, accommodating just a few vehicles. This was part of the institution's overall ethos of "order."

Building belonging and the modern citizen

This spatial standardization, on one hand, conveyed the state's authority and solemnity, while on the other, it delivered a clear message to the citizen: "This state is the same everywhere, reliable, and modern." A child growing up in a remote corner of Anatolia, upon visiting the government mansion in the nearest town for the first time, would encounter a structure similar to the school in their own village, thus feeling the state's presence and continuity in a tangible way.

This was also part of the project to create a "modern citizen." The Turkish flag in front of institution buildings, the bust of Atatürk, and the inscriptions on the walls such as "Happy is the one who says I am a Turk" transformed these spaces from mere schools or hospitals into centers of culture and identity production.

The psychological effect of institutional identity balancing trust and awe

The feelings of a citizen entering a state institution in that era were mixed. On one hand, there was the state's compassionate wing (hospitals, schools, community centers); on the other, the state's deterrent power (gendarmerie stations, courthouses). Yet in both cases, the physical language of the space reflected the same seriousness and order.

Institutional Culture: The dress codes of civil servants working in these buildings (suits, ties, official caps), their style of speech, and their behavior patterns created an institutional culture that was integrated with the physical space.

Urban Landmark: These buildings were often the most impressive and well-maintained structures in their respective cities or districts. This was perceived as a physical indicator of the importance the state attached to that region.

The reflection of this vision today

Unfortunately, in the post-1980 period, rapid urbanization and privatization policies have largely disrupted this aesthetic integrity. Old institution gardens have been turned into parking lots, and symmetrically planted pine trees have given way to concrete blocks. New government buildings, for the most part, have become soulless glass and concrete structures devoid of functionality.

However, even today, when you see an old community center or a government mansion from that era in some Anatolian town, you can still feel that atmosphere. Because these buildings are not just structures; they are the petrified embodiments of the Republic's founding philosophy, its hope, and its ideal of modernization.

Atatürk's vision permeated not only factories and banks but also the pine trees in the gardens of those factories, the lighting in school corridors, and the flagpoles at the entrances of government mansions. This invisible network served as a powerful tool that bound Türkiye together as a unified "state and nation" reminding everyone of the Republic every single day. The reason we fondly recall that atmosphere today is perhaps because, in that era, stone, soil, and wood all carried an ideal.

With the proclamation of the Republic, Türkiye faced the historic task of complementing its political independence with economic sovereignty. The legacy inherited from the Ottoman Empire consisted of heavy foreign debt, capitulations, an exhausted treasury, and an agricultural economy with almost no industrial infrastructure. Under these conditions, the development drive initiated under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was not merely an industrialization project, but the concrete embodiment of the ideal of building a fully independent state.

The İzmir economics congress (1923) the national pact of economic independence

Even before the Treaty of Lausanne was signed, the İzmir Economics Congress, held between February 17 and March 4, 1923, represented the first major declaration of the new Türkiye's economic direction. The decisions taken at the congress, while encouraging the private sector, also paved the way for the state to play an active role in industrialization. Atatürk's words at the congress perfectly summarize the entire endeavor.

"However great political and military victories may be, unless they are crowned by economic victories, the victories won cannot be lasting."

This congress was the first herald of Atatürk's vision of a "national economy."

The principle of statism why state-led industry?

The devastation caused by the 1929 World Economic Depression and the private sector's lack of sufficient capital accumulation pushed the state directly into the role of investor. The principle of Statism adopted in the 1930s envisaged the state engaging in production in areas where the private sector either could not enter or was insufficient. However, this was not an application against private enterprise; on the contrary, it was a necessity to build the infrastructure that would create national industry.

Sümerbank the heart of industry and the hub of development

The most remarkable institution of this period was Sümerbank, established on July 11, 1933. Sümerbank was more than just a bank; with its factories spread across the four corners of Türkiye, it was essentially an industrial holding company. Aiming to produce everything from cotton to cloth, and from wool to blankets using domestic resources, Sümerbank carried out major investments that are still talked about today.

1. Kayseri Cloth Factory (1935): Türkiye's first large-scale textile complex.
2. Nazilli Print Factory (1937): Inaugurated by Atatürk himself, this factory played a key role in the development of the Aegean Region.
3. Bursa Merinos Factory (1938): One of the last factories opened by Atatürk, Merinos also laid the foundation of Türkiye's woolen industry.

Sümerbank also transformed the social fabric of Anatolia with the schools, dispensaries, and social facilities it established around its factories.

SEKA (cellulose and paper factories) the nationalization of paper

Initiating paper production in Türkiye was one of the Republic's most strategic moves. SEKA, whose foundations were laid in İzmit in 1936 and which began production in 1939, was established to meet this need. Türkiye, which had previously imported paper, reduced its foreign dependency in this area with SEKA. Pioneering the training of engineers like Mehmet Ali Kağıtçı, SEKA also became a center of social life in the city where it was located, housing facilities such as a cinema, a sports club, and a community center.

Banks and infrastructure institutions

 The industrial drive was not just about factories. Institutions to finance these investments and to process energy and mineral resources were also established one after another.

• Etibank (1935): Established to operate mineral deposits and organize energy production.
• Electrical Works Survey Administration (1935): Laid the groundwork for energy infrastructure by planning the country's electricity potential.
• State Airlines (1933): The first step in modernization of transportation.

Why was this drive "revolutionary"?

The institutions established during the Atatürk era served directly the goal of a "national economy." Previously, Anatolia largely exported raw materials and imported processed products from abroad. With these facilities.

• High value-added products began to be produced domestically.
• Efforts were made to curb unemployment.
• The domestic market was revitalized.
• Foreign dependency was reduced.

All these moves were products of the belief, as Atatürk emphasized in 1923, that political liberation must be reinforced with economic liberation.

The changing world order and the reflection of the legacy today

Unfortunately, starting from the 1980s, within the framework of neoliberal economic policies that came to dominate the world, institutions like Sümerbank, SEKA, and Etibank were downsized or closed down through privatization. For example, SEKA effectively ended in 2005, and Sümerbank in 2002. However, the greatest legacy these institutions left behind was ensuring that the industry had a certain accumulation of knowledge and a culture of the working class.

Today, the foundations of Türkiye's success in areas ranging from automotive to defense industry lie in the modest but determined steps taken in that era.

The industrial drive of the Atatürk era was not merely a development strategy, but also the economic reflection of the Republic's philosophy of independence. Factories, banks, and institutions were the building blocks of the ideal of building an independent, strong, and dignified society. Whatever the fate of these institutions in the historical process, the path they opened will remain in memory as a turning point in Türkiye's industrialization journey.

An analysis of Osman Nuri Koçtürk's "Gıda Emperyalizmi"

In an era where global food prices fluctuate wildly and supply chains are weaponized, the insights of Turkish scientist Osman Nuri Koçtürk remain remarkably prescient. Writing in 1966 and republished in 2009 by the Turkish Chamber of Agricultural Engineers Koçtürk laid bare a chilling reality: food has become the most effective weapon of modern imperialism. His analysis, grounded in decades of scientific observation and personal experience, reveals how developed nations have replaced military occupation with economic manipulation through agricultural policy.

The book opens with a stark observation that resonates even more powerfully today: "Countries are managed through oil, but people are managed through food." This fundamental premise drives Koçtürk's exploration of what he terms "Food Imperialism" the systematic use of food aid, agricultural surpluses, and trade policies to create dependency and extract wealth from developing nations.

The Mechanism of Food Imperialism

Koçtürk's central thesis rests on a simple biological truth: human labor and intellectual capacity depend entirely on adequate nutrition. By controlling a nation's food supply, imperial powers can control its workforce, its health, its educational outcomes, and ultimately its political will.

The author identifies four essential factors of production Man, Money, Materials, and Machinery which American economists summarized as the "4M" formula. While traditional colonialism seized territory through military force, the new colonialism focuses on controlling these four elements, particularly the human element, through economic means.

Perhaps the most striking illustration in the book is Koçtürk's "mouse cage" metaphor: when 40 mice are confined with precisely enough food for 40, they reproduce peacefully. But as the population grows while food remains constant, the colony descends into chaos fighting, cannibalism, and social breakdown. When the population drops back to 40, peace returns. This, Koçtürk argues, is precisely what happens to developing nations whose food supplies are artificially constrained or manipulated.

The Turkish case study: a three-act play

Koçtürk dedicates significant attention to Türkiye's experience, presenting it as a textbook example of food imperialism in action, staged in three distinct acts.

Act one: the meat and milk game

Türkiye once had a robust livestock sector. To dismantle it, imperial powers flooded the market with subsidized powdered milk and frozen poultry at prices below local production costs. Domestic producers were bankrupted, and Turkish citizens gradually shifted from animal protein to a grain-based diet. The result: a population physically weaker and more dependent on imported staples.

Act two: the wheat game

Before World War II, Türkiye was a wheat exporter. Through the US Public Law 480 program, subsidized American wheat was poured into the Turkish market. While this initially appeared as generous aid, its true purpose was to undercut Turkish farmers, who abandoned wheat cultivation for more profitable cash crops like tobacco, cotton, and sugar beets. Within a decade, Türkiye once a breadbasket had become one of the world's largest wheat importers.

Act three: the oil game

Türkiye produces some of the world's finest olive oil. Yet American soybean interests, unable to sell their surplus domestically or in Europe, targeted Türkiye as a new market. Initially, they offered high prices for Turkish olive oil while simultaneously flooding the country with cheap soybean oil. The population was gradually weaned off olive oil and onto margarine. Once this dependency was established, the imperial powers reversed course: they stopped buying Turkish olive oil, drove down its price, and demanded dollars for the soybean oil they had previously offered cheaply. The Turkish government was forced to cancel the agreement, but the damage to the domestic olive oil industry and public health was severe.

The public health consequences

Koçtürk presciently connected these economic manipulations to devastating health outcomes. As margarine consumption rose, so did cardiovascular disease. He cites official Turkish statistics showing a steady increase in heart-related deaths throughout the 1950s and early 1960s. While US scientists and policymakers publicly acknowledged the health risks of hydrogenated oils, their Turkish counterparts influenced by commercial interests actively suppressed this information.

The author does not limit his critique to Western powers. He notes that Eastern bloc nations employ similar tactics, offering vodka factories and cultural exchanges as entry points before establishing economic dependency. The choice between East and West, he warns, is a false one for developing nations.

Disturbing Confessions

Perhaps the most powerful section of Koçtürk's work is his documentation of Western policymakers' frank admissions about food's strategic role. He quotes Don Paarlberg, the first coordinator of the PL 480 food aid program, who stated: "Food given as foreign aid destroys the agricultural markets of recipient countries and discourages their producers. The people of these nations have become victims of 'Food Imperialism.'"

Even more chillingly, Texas Senator Wright Patman declared: "Of all the weapons ever used in international warfare, food is the most effective. The United States possesses this weapon and will maintain its superiority in using it longer than any other nation."

Koçtürk also documents the proposal of Dr. Joseph Goldzieher, who suggested adding sterilizing agents to the public water supply of developing nations to control population growth a proposal that, while rejected, demonstrates the extreme lengths to which imperial thinking can extend.

Solutions and Path Forward

Koçtürk does not simply diagnose the problem; he offers a prescription for liberation. His recommendations are remarkably clear.

1. National Awareness: The first step is public education about food imperialism and its mechanisms. Democracy requires an informed citizenry that can resist manipulation.
2. Food Self-Sufficiency: Developing nations must prioritize agricultural development that meets domestic nutritional needs before pursuing industrial expansion. Without food independence, all other forms of development remain vulnerable.
3. Cultural Defense: Food is not merely fuel; it is an expression of cultural identity. The replacement of traditional foods with imported alternatives is a form of cultural colonization that must be resisted.
4. Strategic Vigilance: Governments must establish rigorous inspection regimes for all imported food, recognizing that contamination whether chemical, biological, or ideological poses a national security threat.
5. Careful Foreign Relations: Neither Western nor Eastern powers offer genuine partnership to developing nations. True independence lies in self-reliance and strategic neutrality.

Contemporary Relevance

Koçtürk's analysis, written during the Cold War, seems almost prophetic in its relevance to today's global food system. The consolidation of global grain markets among a handful of multinational corporations, the use of food aid as a lever for political influence, and the devastating impact of price volatility on food-importing developing nations all confirm his central thesis.

The recent resurgence of "food sovereignty" movements demanding that nations control their own food production represents the kind of resistance Koçtürk advocated. Similarly, growing awareness of how processed foods, particularly seed oils, affect public health echoes his warnings about margarine.

Osman Nuri Koçtürk was a veterinarian and biochemist who understood that nutrition is not merely a biological necessity but a political question of profound importance. His work demonstrates that food independence is not a luxury for developing nations but a prerequisite for genuine sovereignty.

In a world where supply chain disruptions become weapons and where the right to adequate nutrition remains unmet for billions, Koçtürk's message transcends its original context. His call for public awareness, self-reliance, and resistance to economic manipulation remains as urgent today as it was in 1966. The new colonialism, it appears, operates not through armies and battleships, but through the subtle control of what we eat and what we cannot grow ourselves.

"Man is a biological creature as much as he is a social one. Without adequate food, no society can develop, and without food independence, no nation can truly be free."
— Osman Nuri Koçtürk

I had conversations over tea with great people who are older than me.

Photo Mehmet Teke on Pexels

On August 29, 2026, we met up with MR. Nihat, a retired soldier, and MR. Tuğrul, a retired teacher, for a pleasant conversation. Over sips of tea, we discussed Türkiye's structural problems and possible solutions.

Having been a soldier, MR. Nihat had the opportunity to serve in various parts of Türkiye and is quite familiar with the country's diverse human cultures. MR. Tuğrul, as a former teacher, has educated thousands of students across many regions of Türkiye and is an experienced educator who has been immersed in different cultures.

MR. Nihat conducts research on philosophy and Turkic languages, and is also writing a thesis on a particular subject. On this occasion, he shared some of his research with me. He is a highly accomplished, very kind, and intellectual individual, shaped by the Republic's educational system. He is a remarkably knowledgeable and highly skilled person. Likewise, MR. Tuğrul is one of the enlightened individuals shaped by the Republic. His former students have gone on to carry out internationally recognized work and have represented Türkiye abroad. For a teacher, this is a tremendous source of pride and honor. On behalf of my country, meeting such valuable people and exchanging ideas with them made me very happy. I once again saw that we need enlightened and intellectual individuals to overcome this dark period Türkiye is going through. We are facing a government that is dragging Türkiye into the quagmire of the Middle East, shaking the fundamental values of the Republic, and disregarding our core values. This government is doing great harm to our country and spending the money of future generations on interest lobbies.

Turkish society needs to be analyzed carefully. The greatest weakness of our society has been 'religion' and politicians have managed to bring certain segments under their influence by engaging in religious peddling. However, it would be very wrong to say that these politicians are pious; they merely use religion as a tool.

The wrongdoings of the government and the deep economic poverty into which it has plunged our country have sparked a awakening of consciousness in society, and the public has now begun to think. Societies that think and question do not become puppets of politicians, because they constantly research and scrutinize what is being done. Under normal circumstances, the general elections planned for 2028 will likely be held in 2027, because the government needs an early election; otherwise, the current President cannot run for reelection. In the general election, which seems likely to take place in 2027, society will make its decision, but this time I believe the public will deal a heavy blow to the government. Because in the previous local elections, society enabled the main opposition party to win many municipalities that had been held by the ruling party, sending a strong message to the government. However, the ruling party, using state power, carried out dawn raids on the mayors elected by the people, forcibly taking them from their homes by police and arresting them after the detention process.

In the history of the Republic of Türkiye, there have been many poor administrations, but never before has there been a government that has wielded state power so recklessly.

Society is remaining silent for now, but when the ballot boxes are set up in the general election, the test for the government will begin. Society will give the government a great lesson and will authorize a new administration to make them pay for what they have done. I believe that the biggest corruption trials in the history of the Republic of Türkiye will be seen, because the government has become entangled in corruption on an incredible scale and has stolen the state's money. I believe that these deeds must not go unpunished and that one day the price must certainly be paid, because society harbors a tremendous anger toward the current government and demands that they be brought to justice.

Knowing that it cannot win the general election under the current circumstances, the ruling government has tried to reduce the opposition's vote share by splitting its votes, but it has not succeeded, because society will give its vote to the party most likely to defeat the government. The '50+1' electoral system currently in place in Türkiye will likely be changed again by the hands of the current government, because under these conditions it does not seem likely to receive 50% of the votes.

Anyway, to return to where we started, MR. Nihat and MR. Tuğrul gave me a new vision and sparked new ideas in my mind. I have gained new perspectives for our program called 'Körfez Masası' (Table of the Körfez), which we broadcast on YouTube, and I have already started working on new projects. I will announce my new projects as soon as possible. So far, we have shot four episodes, and we will soon be with you with Episode 5. Türkiye needs enlightened people more than ever, and this society will never forgive those who are hostile to it.