This is Emre.

Turkish politics has recently been shaken by a rare earthquake. The historic fracture within the Republican People's Party (CHP), which has maintained its position as the main opposition for over two decades, has virtually redrawn the political map. The "New Party" (Yeni Parti), founded by Özgür Özel after he was ousted from the CHP leadership, has quickly become the second-largest power in parliament, causing a reshuffling of the cards in the race for power. So, does this new political entity have the potential to end President Erdoğan's grip on power that has lasted for over two decades?

The Historic Rift in the CHP and the Birth of the New Party

To understand the process, we need to look at the recent past. Taking over the leadership of the CHP in 2023, Özgür Özel brought a breeze of renewal to the party, and this synergy enabled the CHP to surpass the ruling AK Party and become the leading party in the March 2024 local elections for the first time in 22 years. Retaining and winning many metropolitan cities, especially Istanbul, had allowed hopes to blossom on the opposition front.

However, Özel's removal from the chairmanship by a court decision in May and the reinstatement of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu—who had led the party to many defeats in the past—broke the camel's back. Following this process, which many independent observers and human rights organizations interpreted as the "weaponization of the justice system" Özel charted his own path and founded the "New Party" on July 24th.

Splitting parties is not a new phenomenon in Turkish politics. But what made this split historic was its sheer scale. Following Özgür Özel's call, 90 of the CHP's 135 MPs defected to the New Party. While the CHP shrank to the fifth-largest party in parliament with 44 seats, the New Party suddenly took the main opposition seat. Moreover, the fact that Ekrem İmamoğlu—the popular political figure who declared his second victory in Istanbul in 2024 and is currently in the crosshairs of a political ban due to ongoing lawsuits—left his 17-year CHP past behind to join the New Party completely changed the political balance. Polls show the CHP's vote share plummeting below 5%, while the New Party has soared above 30%, making it the AK Party's most serious rival.

Political Balances and 2028 Scenarios

Technically, President Erdoğan's current term expires in 2028, and according to the constitution, parliament must call an early election for him to run again. Many experts expect exactly this to happen. In a potential election, the main factor determining the New Party's chances will be its ability to build a broad "coalition."

At first glance, a divided opposition might seem to benefit the ruling party. For the New Party to overcome this disadvantage, it must go beyond the secular and social democratic base it inherited from the CHP. It needs to establish a wider alliance bloc that encompasses the center-right, nationalists, and Kurdish voters. However, the government's potential reintroduction of a peace process with the PKK carries the risk of detaching actors like the DEM Party from the opposition bloc and further fragmenting it. This situation will be one of the biggest political tests ahead for the New Party.

The Economic Picture and Historical Repetition

In the shadow of political turmoil, the Turkish economy is also facing a tough test. The Central Bank raising its year-end inflation target from 16% to 24%, the sharp 6% drop in the stock market following Özgür Özel's removal from the CHP leadership, and the Turkish Lira's continued slide against the dollar are all factors weakening the government's hand. Judicial crackdowns spooking investors and this fragility in the economy create a significant advantage for the opposition.

On the other hand, it is also possible to draw a historical parallel. The Democrat Party, which broke away from the CHP in 1946, marched to power just four years later, in 1950. The leadership profile of Özgür Özel, who revived the opposition after the disappointment of 2023, could provide the momentum the New Party needs to repeat this history.

A Judicial Vise or a March to Power?

The rise of the New Party has inevitably entered the radar of both the government and the judiciary. The preparation of a summary of proceedings against Özgür Özel on bribery allegations and the request to lift his parliamentary immunity just two weeks after his party's establishment are harbingers of the storm on the horizon.

However, political history shows that pressure and crackdowns do not always yield the desired results. President Erdoğan's own political adventure did not end with the prison sentence he received while serving as the Mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s; on the contrary, it carried him to the Prime Ministry in 2003 and a twenty-year rule thereafter.

If the New Party can withstand the judicial and political pressures, gather the divided opposition under a broad umbrella, and correctly channel the social reaction created by the economic crisis, a potential early election in the coming years could set the stage for a change of hands after a two-decade-long rule.

Contemporary Türkiye is currently navigating one of the most critical junctures in its republican history. The prolonged convergence of political and economic crises renders the sociological metaphor of the "final exit before the bridge" increasingly salient. While the Justice and Development Party (AKP) administration's two-decade tenure initially garnered public support through paradigms of economic growth and institutional reform, the policy trajectories ultimately adopted have driven the nation into a profound systemic impasse.

Photo Craig Adderley on Pexels

Macroeconomic unorthodoxy and deep poverty

A primary locus of criticism regarding the incumbent government involves its departure from rational macroeconomic principles. The persistent application of unorthodox economic theses fundamentally incongruent with universal economic science—most notably the assertion that "interest rates are the cause and inflation is the result"—has precipitated a historic depreciation of the Turkish Lira (₺). Consequently, Türkiye is currently experiencing not merely chronic inflation, but a severe structural reality of deep poverty.

Amidst the erosion of the middle class and a precipitous decline in purchasing power, fundamental necessities such as adequate housing and nutrition have been relegated to the status of luxury. As lower-income demographics struggle for basic subsistence, income inequality has widened to unprecedented levels within the republic's history.

Democratic erosion and the rule of law

This economic degradation is not an incidental byproduct; rather, it is a direct manifestation of institutional decay and democratic backsliding. The de facto eradication of the separation of powers and the centralization of authority under the Presidential Government System have effectively dismantled systemic checks and balances.

Within this trajectory, freedom of the press has sustained the most severe damage. Independent journalists endeavoring to inform the public regarding governmental missteps, corruption allegations, or the true magnitude of the economic crisis face systematic suppression through detentions, incarcerations, and censorship legislation. The press's normative function as the Fourth Estate has been largely supplanted by a governmental echo chamber. The systemic conflation of journalistic activity with ambiguous legal charges—such as "terrorism" or "inciting public hatred and enmity"—has emerged as the most coercive instrument suppressing freedom of expression.

The judicialization of politics and interference with the electorate's will

Free elections and a fair competitive environment, the foundational prerequisites of any democratic system, have been severely compromised by the politicization of the judiciary. The administration's concerted efforts to neutralize its most formidable political adversaries via judicial mechanisms—in order to mitigate the risk of electoral defeat—constitute a profound regression in the nation's political history.

The strategic deployment of unfounded indictments, political bans, and direct penal sentences to sideline opposition leaders and municipal mayors who possess significant public backing and the electoral potential to challenge President Erdoğan represents an intervention not merely against these individuals, but against the democratic will of millions of voters. The instrumentalization of the judiciary to eliminate political competition serves as the most explicit indicator of Türkiye's profound detachment from universal legal norms.

Türkiye is compelled to break free from this self-perpetuating cycle of economic devastation, systemic lawlessness, and authoritarianism. The accumulating societal grievances and the demand for change across diverse demographic strata indicate an urgent imperative to return to the nation's democratic foundations. Achieving economic prosperity is inherently unfeasible within a paradigm where the rule of law is absent, press freedom is curtailed, and political competitors are coerced with incarceration. The impending epoch constitutes the "final exit"—a critical threshold where Türkiye will either recalibrate its trajectory toward contemporary democracy or descend further into this authoritarian tunnel.

Ditch Gmail

Ditch Google Search

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Ditch Chrome

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Ditch Microsoft Office

Ditch Google Maps

Once one of the biggest life goals for the middle class, "buying a home of one's own" has been replaced in today's Türkiye by the struggle to "survive without giving half of one's salary to rent." Browsing real estate listings is no longer a tool for planning the future; it is indistinguishable from window-shopping for an unattainable dream.

The gradual shelving of the hope for homeownership has dragged millions of citizens into a mandatory vortex of rental housing. So, how did housing, the most fundamental right to shelter, become an unreachable luxury? Statistics clearly reveal how dire this picture has become.

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Declining Home Sales: The Melting Purchasing Power in Numbers

Housing and workplace sales statistics published by TurkStat (TÜİK) clearly prove the difficulty citizens face in accessing housing.

• According to July 2026 data, home sales across Türkiye decreased by 17% compared to the same month of the previous year, realizing at 123,603 units.
• Looking at the picture of the first seven months of the year (January-July), total home sales decreased by 5.5% compared to the previous year, falling to 823,119.
• The situation is much more striking in the second-hand housing market, which citizens naturally lean toward using their own savings; in July, second-hand sales experienced a sharp decline of 20.8%, falling to 81,074 units.
• Even though mortgage sales based on bank loans increased by 23.7% annually in July to reach 23,888 units, the share of these sales in total sales remained at only 19.3%.

The fundamental truth these figures tell us is this: The limited number of sales circulating in the market are mostly made not by low- and middle-income earners wanting to meet their housing needs, but by a segment that has cash power and sees housing as an investment tool.

The Rent Crisis and the Burden of Rising Inflation

The rental housing market, the natural destination for the masses unable to purchase homes, is also incapable of meeting this massive demand. Citizens fleeing high housing prices are now caught by rent hikes that crush their incomes.

According to official data, annual consumer inflation (CPI) stood at 31.75% in July 2026. Based on the 12-month CPI average used to calculate rent increases, the legal upper limit for rent hikes for contracts renewed in August 2026 was set at 31.90%.

Even though the legal limits are around the 32% band, this is a shield that only applies to tenants who already have a home. For people who have to move, are relocated for work, or are starting a new household, the cost of renting a new house in the market is priced far beyond these legal limits. In metropolitan areas, the rent for a standard apartment has even exceeded the minimum wage limit.

The Root Causes of the Crisis: Why Did Prices Skyrocket?

This picture is the result of the simultaneous triggering of structural and economic problems that have accumulated over the years:

• The Multiplication of Construction Costs: High inflation has multiplied the costs of basic construction items such as iron, cement, and glass. As contractors unable to calculate costs hesitate to start new projects, the price of the limited number of houses produced is directly pulled up.
• Difficulty Accessing Credit and High Interest Rates: As shown by the share of mortgaged sales remaining at around 19%, the astronomical levels of mortgage interest rates have pushed monthly installments to unpayable dimensions.
• Supply Failing to Meet Demand: The 8.6% drop in first-hand home sales to 42,529 in July 2026 shows that the contraction in new housing production continues. While population and household needs increase, the lack of new production pushes prices up.
• Housing as an Investment Tool: Investors with money viewing housing as a safe haven to prevent their savings from melting against high inflation have carried prices to speculative levels.

Is This Sustainable?

The housing crisis Türkiye is going through has moved beyond being merely an economic indicator and has turned into a serious social issue. The alienation of younger generations from the idea of owning their own home, "even if they work all their lives," breaks their motivation for the future. Escaping this cycle is only possible if inflation is permanently reduced to single digits, intensive social housing projects for low-income earners are initiated, and housing is removed from being merely an "investment commodity" in the market and rebuilt as a "fundamental right."

Recently in Türkiye, the government's increasing pressure and harsh stance against free and independent journalists have been heavily criticized, but the government is not backing down from this attitude. When you criticize bad governance or pursue corruption, they detain you through law enforcement or throw you in jail. In other words, they do not even allow you to practice your profession.

However, the job of journalists is to report everything, good and bad, to the public objectively and to conduct research on their behalf. Because the public might not investigate a topic themselves, and this is the duty of journalists. Yet, in Türkiye, this has become much more difficult for true journalists trying to do their jobs.

The government, forced to release some journalists thanks to public pressure, wants to detain and arrest that person again at the first opportunity. That is to say, they do not want any journalist who does their job properly. This is because journalists play an important role in enlightening the public and changing their opinions.

I salute all journalists who defend independent and free journalism and dedicate their entire lives to this cause.

Journalism is not as easy a profession as people think; on the contrary, they may need to conduct research under incredibly difficult conditions. Especially when an irregularity is detected and there are officials within the government involved, the government strictly opposes its exposure because if it comes to light, the public will react strongly against the government. So, the government prefers to silence journalists because it fears society's reaction, but I think it is impossible for them to do so. In democratic countries, they have never been able to silence journalists; on the contrary, the more they try to silence them, the more new journalists emerge. There are many independent journalists like me who will take on this duty in the public sphere, and their numbers will continue to grow.

In summary, greater support for journalists is crucial.

One day, when the government changes in Türkiye, all the irregularities committed by that government to date will be revealed. These exposed scandals will undoubtedly be investigated by an independent judiciary and will lead to them being brought before a court.

Whoever betrays their country must absolutely be tried as a 'traitor' and treated accordingly.

It is not right to call people patriots who are the lackeys of other countries, who act in accordance with their interests, and who sell out their country; these individuals will definitely be held accountable one day. Knowing this, the government tries to create fear in society and feed off this fear, because it knows there is no other way out.

I believe there will be some major changes in Türkiye very soon, and these changes will profoundly affect the government.

I hope everyone who betrays our country will one day face trial and be held accountable before justice.