Türkiye's wheat trial and misguided policies in the shadow of the climate crisis
Climate Change, the Rising Value of Wheat, and Agricultural Policies in Türkiye
Wheat has been an indispensable part of our tables and one of the fundamental building blocks of civilizations throughout human history. Especially in lands like Türkiye, historically the cradle of agriculture, the importance of wheat is not only economic but also cultural and strategic. Anatolian lands, with their fertile nature, have grown wheat abundantly for centuries and met not only their own needs but also those of surrounding geographies.
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Today, however, alongside global threats like climate change and water scarcity shaking the world, wrong directions in agricultural policies specific to our country have put wheat production into a serious bottleneck. Recent studies show that climate change could triple global wheat prices, and for Türkiye, this is not just a price increase but also a food security and development issue.
The Strategic Importance of Wheat and the Impact of Climate Change
A recent study published in the journal Earth's Future reveals that if the global temperature increase reaches 3 degrees, wheat prices could reach three times their average level in the 2010s. This frightening picture shows that 74% of the fluctuations in global wheat prices are linked to severe water scarcity. Wheat is highly sensitive to simultaneous drought events.
Climate models predict that with rising global temperatures, wheat farming areas experiencing water scarcity will expand. It is warned that by the end of the century, if adequate measures are not taken, nearly 60% of current planting areas could face the risk of severe water scarcity.
Decreasing Wheat Production in Türkiye and Policy Errors
While the global wheat supply is under the threat of the climate crisis, it is essential for Türkiye to protect and increase its own production. Unfortunately, with the general decline of agriculture in Türkiye, wheat production is also on a downward trend. This situation cannot be explained solely as a consequence of climate; it is also a direct reflection of the wrong agricultural policies implemented.
Policies implemented for years have alienated the farmer from their land and caused input costs (fertilizer, diesel, seeds) to become unbearable. Import-based approaches have left the domestic producer unprotected and wasted the potential of Anatolia's fertile lands. The inadequacy of the government's agricultural support policies and unplanned production models have damaged Türkiye's status as a self-sufficient agricultural country.
Increasing Production and Development
A decrease in wheat production does not merely mean an increase in bread prices. It also means the weakening of agriculture-based industry, the deepening of poverty in rural areas, and an increase in the country's foreign dependency.
However, Türkiye's climate conditions and soil structure, when supported by the right policies, are suitable for highly efficient wheat production. Increasing wheat production is a critical step for raising agricultural output, ensuring rural development, and ultimately strengthening the national economy. A Türkiye that produces its own wheat, and even exports the surplus, will have both ensured its food security and strengthened its hand in international markets.
In this period when the climate crisis is at the door, Türkiye needs to urgently review its agricultural policies and take sustainable and supportive steps that put the domestic producer at the center. Because wheat is not just a plant; it is the cornerstone of the country's development.
Return to founding principles: the necessity of collective wisdom and democracy
The agenda in Türkiye changes very rapidly, or there is a desire by some to change it. This is because the deep economic crisis, poverty, and even hunger are creating a massive crisis in the country. The government is busy constantly shifting the agenda to deflect incoming criticism in other directions, but it takes no steps to solve these problems.
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The unfathomable magnitude of the foreign debt, the interest being paid, and the fact that these debts will also have to be paid by future generations are opening deep wounds in the country. Then I sit and think about it, and I conclude that these things are actually being done intentionally. Because no sane person would knowingly surrender the country to such deep poverty and debt. Only those who are someone else's pawn, who commit treason against the homeland, could consciously take these steps.
I believe we are witnessing the final days of this filthy clique that uses the country's resources and engages in shady dealings to amass a fortune of a few hundred billion dollars. It is precisely because they are living their final days that they exhibit such an aggressive attitude. The government, wanting to eliminate the opposition or design it according to its own desires, is engaging in certain shady dealings and trying to do political engineering because it realizes it cannot succeed. However, since these actions have no traction within society, it seems highly unlikely they will succeed.
Ruling powers that lose the support of society are doomed to lose. Parties that gain the support of society will, one way or another, definitely come to power one day and rule the country. Of course, the important issue here, which is also the expectation of society, will be to question the shady dealings of the previous government, have them investigated by an independent judiciary, and prosecute if there is any irregularity. The shady dealings of the government will definitely come to light one day, and steps must be taken to ensure they are not repeated.
Leaving the administration of the state to the initiative of a single person means being dragged into the abyss. Governments that lack the capacity, education, and equipment to rule a country, and that do not feel a sense of belonging to the country, absolutely must not be in charge of the administration. Otherwise, the example of Türkiye should be examined and a lesson must be learned.
A single person must never be the decision-making authority. The Republic of Türkiye is governed by democracy, and the Members of Parliament in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM), who are elected by the public to act as their representatives, should be the authority taking the decisions. That is to say, collective wisdom always develops a country and brings it to prosperity. Countries that are not governed by collective wisdom become trapped in darkness.
Türkiye is not like an Arab country. Neither the society nor the form of government resembles those in Arab countries. Even if it wanted to, it couldn't, because the abundant oil resources found in Arab countries unfortunately do not exist in Türkiye. The administrations of Arab countries (especially those ruled by monarchy) distribute resources as much as possible to keep the society satisfied. They share the oil revenues with the public; otherwise, the public would revolt, and the monarchy would collapse. However, since Türkiye cannot distribute an oil resource it does not possess to the public, it cannot be like Arab countries, and indeed it should not be.
Therefore, the Republic of Türkiye must return to its founding principles and state administration, and it must have robustly functioning institutions. Otherwise, it will sink to the absolute bottom of darkness. Since there will be no deeper bottom left to hit after a while anyway, a rebellion will break out in society.
"The Republic of Türkiye, devotedly founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and his comrades-in-arms, will stand forever."
The Turkish society has no problems whatsoever with the Kurdish society. They have lived together without issues under the same roof for centuries and have established neighborhood and kinship relations. That is to say, a Kurdish youth is not subjected to discrimination in the Republic of Türkiye; just like every citizen, they can benefit from all rights. Education, social, justice...
No distinction is made based on language, religion, or race, and everyone is equal before the law.
Long live the Republic, long live Liberty!
Türkiye's new political reality: could the "New Party" be the key to changing the government?
Turkish politics has recently been shaken by a rare earthquake. The historic fracture within the Republican People's Party (CHP), which has maintained its position as the main opposition for over two decades, has virtually redrawn the political map. The "New Party" (Yeni Parti), founded by Özgür Özel after he was ousted from the CHP leadership, has quickly become the second-largest power in parliament, causing a reshuffling of the cards in the race for power. So, does this new political entity have the potential to end President Erdoğan's grip on power that has lasted for over two decades?
The Historic Rift in the CHP and the Birth of the New Party
To understand the process, we need to look at the recent past. Taking over the leadership of the CHP in 2023, Özgür Özel brought a breeze of renewal to the party, and this synergy enabled the CHP to surpass the ruling AK Party and become the leading party in the March 2024 local elections for the first time in 22 years. Retaining and winning many metropolitan cities, especially Istanbul, had allowed hopes to blossom on the opposition front.
However, Özel's removal from the chairmanship by a court decision in May and the reinstatement of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu—who had led the party to many defeats in the past—broke the camel's back. Following this process, which many independent observers and human rights organizations interpreted as the "weaponization of the justice system" Özel charted his own path and founded the "New Party" on July 24th.
Splitting parties is not a new phenomenon in Turkish politics. But what made this split historic was its sheer scale. Following Özgür Özel's call, 90 of the CHP's 135 MPs defected to the New Party. While the CHP shrank to the fifth-largest party in parliament with 44 seats, the New Party suddenly took the main opposition seat. Moreover, the fact that Ekrem İmamoğlu—the popular political figure who declared his second victory in Istanbul in 2024 and is currently in the crosshairs of a political ban due to ongoing lawsuits—left his 17-year CHP past behind to join the New Party completely changed the political balance. Polls show the CHP's vote share plummeting below 5%, while the New Party has soared above 30%, making it the AK Party's most serious rival.
Political Balances and 2028 Scenarios
Technically, President Erdoğan's current term expires in 2028, and according to the constitution, parliament must call an early election for him to run again. Many experts expect exactly this to happen. In a potential election, the main factor determining the New Party's chances will be its ability to build a broad "coalition."
At first glance, a divided opposition might seem to benefit the ruling party. For the New Party to overcome this disadvantage, it must go beyond the secular and social democratic base it inherited from the CHP. It needs to establish a wider alliance bloc that encompasses the center-right, nationalists, and Kurdish voters. However, the government's potential reintroduction of a peace process with the PKK carries the risk of detaching actors like the DEM Party from the opposition bloc and further fragmenting it. This situation will be one of the biggest political tests ahead for the New Party.
The Economic Picture and Historical Repetition
In the shadow of political turmoil, the Turkish economy is also facing a tough test. The Central Bank raising its year-end inflation target from 16% to 24%, the sharp 6% drop in the stock market following Özgür Özel's removal from the CHP leadership, and the Turkish Lira's continued slide against the dollar are all factors weakening the government's hand. Judicial crackdowns spooking investors and this fragility in the economy create a significant advantage for the opposition.
On the other hand, it is also possible to draw a historical parallel. The Democrat Party, which broke away from the CHP in 1946, marched to power just four years later, in 1950. The leadership profile of Özgür Özel, who revived the opposition after the disappointment of 2023, could provide the momentum the New Party needs to repeat this history.
A Judicial Vise or a March to Power?
The rise of the New Party has inevitably entered the radar of both the government and the judiciary. The preparation of a summary of proceedings against Özgür Özel on bribery allegations and the request to lift his parliamentary immunity just two weeks after his party's establishment are harbingers of the storm on the horizon.
However, political history shows that pressure and crackdowns do not always yield the desired results. President Erdoğan's own political adventure did not end with the prison sentence he received while serving as the Mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s; on the contrary, it carried him to the Prime Ministry in 2003 and a twenty-year rule thereafter.
If the New Party can withstand the judicial and political pressures, gather the divided opposition under a broad umbrella, and correctly channel the social reaction created by the economic crisis, a potential early election in the coming years could set the stage for a change of hands after a two-decade-long rule.
Türkiye’s final exit before the bridge
Contemporary Türkiye is currently navigating one of the most critical junctures in its republican history. The prolonged convergence of political and economic crises renders the sociological metaphor of the "final exit before the bridge" increasingly salient. While the Justice and Development Party (AKP) administration's two-decade tenure initially garnered public support through paradigms of economic growth and institutional reform, the policy trajectories ultimately adopted have driven the nation into a profound systemic impasse.
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Macroeconomic unorthodoxy and deep poverty
A primary locus of criticism regarding the incumbent government involves its departure from rational macroeconomic principles. The persistent application of unorthodox economic theses fundamentally incongruent with universal economic science—most notably the assertion that "interest rates are the cause and inflation is the result"—has precipitated a historic depreciation of the Turkish Lira (₺). Consequently, Türkiye is currently experiencing not merely chronic inflation, but a severe structural reality of deep poverty.
Amidst the erosion of the middle class and a precipitous decline in purchasing power, fundamental necessities such as adequate housing and nutrition have been relegated to the status of luxury. As lower-income demographics struggle for basic subsistence, income inequality has widened to unprecedented levels within the republic's history.
Democratic erosion and the rule of law
This economic degradation is not an incidental byproduct; rather, it is a direct manifestation of institutional decay and democratic backsliding. The de facto eradication of the separation of powers and the centralization of authority under the Presidential Government System have effectively dismantled systemic checks and balances.
Within this trajectory, freedom of the press has sustained the most severe damage. Independent journalists endeavoring to inform the public regarding governmental missteps, corruption allegations, or the true magnitude of the economic crisis face systematic suppression through detentions, incarcerations, and censorship legislation. The press's normative function as the Fourth Estate has been largely supplanted by a governmental echo chamber. The systemic conflation of journalistic activity with ambiguous legal charges—such as "terrorism" or "inciting public hatred and enmity"—has emerged as the most coercive instrument suppressing freedom of expression.
The judicialization of politics and interference with the electorate's will
Free elections and a fair competitive environment, the foundational prerequisites of any democratic system, have been severely compromised by the politicization of the judiciary. The administration's concerted efforts to neutralize its most formidable political adversaries via judicial mechanisms—in order to mitigate the risk of electoral defeat—constitute a profound regression in the nation's political history.
The strategic deployment of unfounded indictments, political bans, and direct penal sentences to sideline opposition leaders and municipal mayors who possess significant public backing and the electoral potential to challenge President Erdoğan represents an intervention not merely against these individuals, but against the democratic will of millions of voters. The instrumentalization of the judiciary to eliminate political competition serves as the most explicit indicator of Türkiye's profound detachment from universal legal norms.
Türkiye is compelled to break free from this self-perpetuating cycle of economic devastation, systemic lawlessness, and authoritarianism. The accumulating societal grievances and the demand for change across diverse demographic strata indicate an urgent imperative to return to the nation's democratic foundations. Achieving economic prosperity is inherently unfeasible within a paradigm where the rule of law is absent, press freedom is curtailed, and political competitors are coerced with incarceration. The impending epoch constitutes the "final exit"—a critical threshold where Türkiye will either recalibrate its trajectory toward contemporary democracy or descend further into this authoritarian tunnel.